The latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) for Q4 2024 highlights a significant increase in renewable energy generation and record-breaking electricity demand across the National Electricity Market (NEM).
Rising Demand and Renewable Energy Growth
Due to higher temperatures and the growing shift from gas to electricity, the NEM recorded a new December quarter peak demand of 33,716MW and an average demand of 23,737MW, marking a 2.4% increase compared to last year.
Meanwhile, rooftop and large-scale solar also set new records, growing by 18% and 9%, respectively. This increase led to minimum demand records being set across the NEM, including Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, and Tasmania.
AEMO’s Executive General Manager of Reform Delivery, Violette Mouchaileh, explained that the rise in rooftop solar generation, along with the low availability of coal-fired power stations, meant that coal contributed less than 50% of the NEM’s total electricity generation for the first time.
She added, “Renewable energy supplied a record 46% of the market’s electricity, reaching a peak of 75.6% on 6 November 2024, driving emissions to record lows.
Electricity Prices and Regional Differences
Wholesale electricity prices in Q4 2024 averaged $88/MWh, 83% higher than Q4 2023 but 26% lower than Q3 2024.
New South Wales ($143/MWh) and Queensland ($127/MWh) recorded their highest Q4 prices, driven by high demand, coal generation issues, and transmission constraints that limited cheaper energy flows from the south.
Victoria had the lowest average price at $45/MWh, followed by South Australia ($52/MWh) and Tasmania ($74/MWh).
Mouchaileh emphasised the importance of new transmission projects like VNI West, Project EnergyConnect, and HumeLink, which will help distribute lower-cost energy more efficiently across the NEM.
Record Negative Prices in the Market
The NEM experienced record levels of hostile prices, with adverse price events occurring 23.1% of the time, up from 19.9% in Q4 2023.
Regional records were set in:
New South Wales (13.3%)
Victoria (34.3%)
South Australia (38%)
Western Australia’s Energy Trends
In Western Australia, coal generation dropped by 19.5% due to the reduced availability of coal plants. This gap was filled by:
Rooftop solar (+20.3%)
Gas (+14.4%)
Battery storage (+1400%)
The average electricity price in WA remained steady at $79.93/MWh. Mouchaileh noted, “Increased battery storage helped Western Australia reach a new quarterly renewable energy average of 46.4%, with a peak of 85.1%.
Gas Market Developments
In WA’s domestic gas market, production fell by 1% to 104.3PJ, while consumption decreased by 2.6% to 93.9PJ, compared to Q4 2023.
On the east coast, wholesale gas prices rose to $13.60/GJ due to record Queensland LNG exports and higher gas-fired electricity generation.
Despite increased gas production in Victoria—with the Otway Gas Plant boosting supply by 6.1PJ and Longford Gas Plant increasing output for the first time since Q4 2022 (+3.7PJ)—these gains were offset by reduced supply from Queensland LNG export projects.